Boeing has forecast that China’s airlines will acquire 8,600
new airplanes valued at $1.4 trillion and commercial aviation
services valued at $1.7 trillion over the next 20 years,
reflecting an expected robust recovery following the COVID19
Boeing shared its annual China market forecast on
part of the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which shows
anticipated demand for commercial airplanes and services.
China’s rapidly growing middle class, increased economic growth
and growing urbanization are all factors in the Boeing forecast,
suggesting the country will lead passenger travel globally in the
next few years.
Since 2000, China’s commercial jet fleet has
expanded sevenfold, and approximately 25% of all aviation growth
worldwide in the last decade has come from China. Boeing forecasts
this trend will continue over the next 20 years.
COVID19 has severely impacted every passenger market worldwide,
China’s fundamental growth drivers remain resilient and robust,”
said Richard Wynne, managing director, China Marketing, Boeing
Commercial Airplanes. “Not only has China’s recovery from COVID19
outpaced the rest of the world, but also continued government investments toward improving and expanding its transportation
infrastructure, large regional traffic flows, and a flourishing
domestic market mean this region of the world will thrive.”
Despite the challenges imposed by the pandemic, China’s
projected airplane and services market represents a nearly 7%
increase over last year’s 20-year CMO forecast. These increases
are driven by continued high demand for single-aisle airplanes and
China’s expanding share of passenger widebodies to support
international routes, along with a large replacement cycle as
China’s fleet matures.
Boeing also anticipates growth in Chinese
demand for new and converted freighters and digital solutions to
help carriers further innovate and succeed.
The 2020 China CMO includes:
– Boeing forecasts China’s annual passenger
traffic growth to be 5.5% over the next 20 years.
– Boeing estimates operators will need more than
6,450 new single-aisle airplanes in China over the next 20 years.
– In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts demand
for 1,590 deliveries by 2039 in China.
– The company expects widebody airplanes to
account for 18% of China’s deliveries during the 20-year period,
down 4% from last year’s forecast due to an anticipated slower
recovery in global long-haul traffic.
China already has the world’s highest e-commerce growth
rate but Boeing says there is still significant room for development of air express shipping,
presenting an opportunity for robust freighter demand.
Long-term aviation industry growth in China is
expected to drive the need for 395,000 commercial pilots, cabin
crew members and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the
country’s airplane fleet.
The complete forecast is available in .pdf on