(25 Feb 2021)
Boeing anticipates airlines in Southeast Asia will
need 4,400 new airplanes valued at US$700 billion to support
expanding demand for air travel over the next 20 years.
The intra-Southeast Asian market will become the
fifth largest in the world by 2039, and the vast domestic and
regional air-travel network across the region positions it well
for a post-pandemic recovery, according to Boeing’s 2020
Commercial Market Outlook (CMO).
With low-cost carriers providing affordable
service and added capacity, the CMO projects passenger traffic
growth in Southeast Asia to grow by 5.7% annually throughout the
forecast period. Through the period, Southeast Asia will become
the second largest aviation market in the Asia-Pacific region
Boeing projects the region’s commercial airplane
fleet will grow 5.3% annually over the next 20 years. In addition,
demand for aftermarket commercial services – valued at US$790
billion – will help maintain the fleet over the same period.
“Southeast Asia’s fundamental growth drivers
remain robust. With an expanding middle-class and growth in
private consumption, the region’s economy has grown by nearly 70%
over the last decade, which increases propensity to travel,” said
Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. “In
addition, governments in the region continue to recognize the
travel and tourism sectors as important drivers of economic
While near-term airplane deliveries are impacted
as a result of the pandemic’s effects, Boeing estimates operators
will need more than 3,500 new single-aisle airplanes in the region
Single-aisle airplanes like the 737 family will
continue to drive capacity growth in Southeast Asia, where
low-cost-carriers have the highest market penetration globally.
Twin-aisle airplanes such as the 777X and 787
Dreamliner will remain foundational to Southeast Asia’s air travel
industry. Over the next 20 years, nearly one in four twin-aisle
airplanes delivered to the broader Asia-Pacific region will go to
a carrier operating in Southeast Asia.
Overall, Boeing forecasts regional demand for 760
new widebodies by 2039, enabling efficient replacement and
versatile network growth for Southeast Asia’s airlines. While
long-haul market recovery is expected to take longer, Southeast
Asia’s twin-aisle fleet is slated to grow by 55% – to 780
widebodies – by 2039.
The region’s commercial aviation services growth
remains promising in the long term. Southeast Asia commercial
services are valued at US$790 billion over the next 20 years, a
slight increase from last year’s projection, driven largely by
growth in freighter conversions and digital solutions and
The region is expected to require 183,000 more
commercial pilots, cabin crew members and aviation technicians
over the forecast period.
Globally, Boeing projects the need for 43,110 new
commercial airplanes and the demand for aftermarket services to be
equivalent to US$9 trillion over the next two decades. World air
cargo traffic is projected to grow 4% annually due to solid
industrial production and world trade.
Freighters will remain the backbone of the cargo
industry with the need for 930 new and 1500 converted freighters
during the same span.
The complete forecast is available in .pdf
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